Investors seem to have priced in a 25 basis points rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve on May 3. Next, they will look for clues on the Fed’s actions for the rest of the year.
Will the Fed maintain its hawkish stance as inflation still remains well above its target range or will the bank troubles and the looming recession make the central bank signal a pause in its rate hikes?
The World Economic Forum Chief Economists Outlook report released on May 1 shows that 80% of the chief economists believe that central banks have to maintain a delicate balance between “managing inflation and maintaining financial sector stability.” The economists anticipate that the central banks will find it difficult to bring down inflation to their target levels.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, in an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, cautioned investors that investing in assets “outside of the traditional financial system” is the only way out if they want to preserve their capital.
Could Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins start an up-move after bouncing off key support levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
The price action of the past few days has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern in Bitcoin. Generally, the symmetrical triangle acts as a continuation pattern and the price breaks out in the direction that was prevalent before the formation developed.
However, it is better to wait for the price to complete the breakout before waging any new bets because sometimes, the setup behaves as a reversal pattern.
The flattish 20-day exponential moving average ($28,642) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.
If the price continues lower and breaks below the triangle, it will suggest the start of a short-term corrective phase. The BTC/USDT pair may drop to $25,250. This level is likely to witness aggressive buying by the bulls.
Contrarily, if the price bounces off the support line and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair may rise to the resistance line. A break and close above the triangle will open the doors for a potential rally to $32,400.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) jumped off the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on May 1, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The bulls will try to push the price above the moving averages and challenge the resistance line. If buyers kick the price above the triangle, the ETH/USDT pair may rally to $2,131. There is a minor resistance at $2,000 but it is likely to be crossed.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will make another attempt to sink the pair below the triangle. If they succeed in their endeavor, the pair may plunge to the pattern target of $1,619.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) remains stuck inside the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears
Buyers are trying to guard the support line of the triangle. If they manage to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($326), the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line. Traders will have to overcome this obstacle to signal the start of a new up-move.
Alternatively, if the price collapses below the triangle, it will suggest that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the bears. The pair may then slide to $300 and thereafter extend the fall to the pattern target of $280.
XRP price analysis
The long tail on the May 1 and 2 candlesticks shows that the bulls tried to start a recovery in XRP (XRP). However, they could not sustain the buying pressure and the price turned lower on May 3.
The bears will try to extend the decline to the strong support at $0.43. This remains the key level to watch for in the near term. If this support crumbles, the XRP/USDT pair may drop to $0.36. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls.
Instead, if the price turns up from $0.43 and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.47), it will signal that bulls are on a comeback. The pair could then rally to the resistance line. If buyers surmount this hurdle, the pair may surge to $0.54.
Cardano price analysis
The bulls held Cardano (ADA) above the 50-day simple moving average ($0.38) on May 2 but they failed to overcome the obstacle at the 20-day EMA ($0.39).
The bears are trying to pounce on this opportunity and close the ADA/USDT pair below the 50-day SMA. There is a minor support at $0.37 but if that cracks, the selling could pick up momentum and the pair may slump to $0.33 and later to $0.30.
The important resistance on the upside is the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Buyers will have to drive the price above this level to signal a potential trend change in the near term. The pair can then surge to $0.46.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is struggling to bounce off the strong support near $0.08, which suggests a lack of demand from the bulls.
The 20-day EMA ($0.08) is sloping down and the RSI is below 42, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the support near $0.08 is breached, the DOGE/USDT pair could plummet to the next major support at $0.07.
If bulls want to prevent this decline, they will have to quickly push the price above the downtrend line. The pair may then rally to $0.09 and thereafter dash toward the stiff overhead resistance at $0.11.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) rebounded off the $0.94 support on May 2, indicating that the bulls are trying to aggressively protect the level.
The 20-day EMA ($1.02) is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative zone, indicating that the sentiment remains negative. Sellers will try to stall the recovery at the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the MATIC/USDT pair may turn down and fall to $0.94.
The repeated retest of a support level within a short interval tends to weaken it. If this support gives way, the selling could intensify and the pair may nosedive to $0.69. Buyers will have to kick the price above the resistance line to invalidate the bearish view.
Related: Litecoin price poised for 700% gains vs. Bitcoin, says Charlie Lee
Solana price analysis
Buyers defended the 50-day SMA ($21.78) on May 2 but they could not propel Solana (SOL) above the 20-day EMA ($22.26). This shows that the bears are selling on every minor rally.
The bears have pulled the price below the 50-day SMA. If they sustain the breakdown, the SOL/USDT pair could reach the next strong support at $18.70. The possibility of a bounce off this level remains high. If that happens, the pair may stay range-bound between $18.70 and $27.12 for some more time.
Contrarily, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The pair could then rally to $24 and later dash to the overhead resistance at $27.12.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) slipped below the $5.70 support on May 1 and the bears are trying to build upon this advantage on May 3.
The bulls attempted a recovery on May 2 but the shallow bounce showed a lack of aggressive buying near $5.70. This suggests that the DOT/USDT pair may continue lower and reach the crucial support at $5.15.
Time is running out for the bulls. If they want to start a sustained recovery, they will have to quickly push the price above the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the pair may pick up momentum and rally toward $7.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($89) and the horizontal support at $85. The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the RSI is in the negative zone, indicating that bears hold the edge.
If bears tug the price below $85, the selling could intensify and the LTC/USDT pair may plunge to the strong support at $75. The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might because a break below it will open the doors for a further drop to $65.
Another possibility is that the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the moving averages. Such a move will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The pair may then rise to $96 and above it to $106.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.